Bolsonaro loses ground on social media

Less known candidates Manuela D’Ávila and João Amoêdo increase their relevance over the last three months

Week 16, from 22 to 29 June

By Maria Luiza Abbott and Marcelo Stoppa, AJA Media Solutions

After dominating the social networks for a long time, congressman Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) has begun to lose ground since April on Facebook and Twitter, as other pre-candidates effectively started their political campaigns on social media, according to data gathered by AJA Solutions . For the past three months, three relatively unknown pre-candidates Manuela D’Ávila (Brazil’s Communist Party), João Amoêdo (New Party) and Guilherme Boulos (Socialism and Liberty Party) entered the battle to attract Twitter users’ attention, hence increased their share of relevance and visibility while reducing that of congressman’s.

On Facebook, Amoêdo and Manuela more than doubled the engagement (likes and comments) with users since April. On Twitter, Bolsonaro’s share in the total relevance of pre-candidates has been around 20%, far from reaching the levels it was in April. On the other hand, former president Lula’s share has fluctuated, completing the week with an increase once again. On Facebook, both Lula and Bolsonaro lost engagement in June compared to April. In June, Lula’s share was 31% and Bolsonaro’s 29%.

Data shows that the former president’s imprisonment on April 7th has changed the correlation of relevance among presidential pre-candidates on social media. The apparent indication that Manuela and Boulos would be Lula’s “heirs” – as indicated by a photo distributed by PT just before his imprisonment – propelled their relevance on social networks. The imprisonment also affected users engagement with Lula’s and Bolsonaro’s profiles on social media, as it generated huge debate among their followers. Since then, those heated exchanges have been fading away, as Manuela, Amoêdo and Boulos’ relevance went up. Amoêdo has strengthened his presence on social media by positioning himself as a non-traditional politician. His relevance has increased particularly on Facebook, as his communication strategy has a high degree of efficiency, as shown by the research metrics.

Twitter analysis of the week 22-29 June indicates that Bolsonaro’s share in the total relevance was 22%. On the other extreme of the political spectrum, Lula, Manuela and Boulos together have been have kept an average share of 55% since April – Manuela and Lula have garnered the lion piece of that during this period.

In the last week of June, Bolsonaro came first in the ranking of relevance and visibility of presidential pre-candidates on Twitter even though his share has not increased. Manuela , who had a very strong performance in the previous week, fell to 2nd place with two points difference from the PSL pre-candidate. The share of relevance lost by Manuela was “redistributed” to Lula and Boulos, that came 3rd and 4th in the ranking. The four pre-candidates are above the relevance threshold – below which, pre-candidates do not generate enough dialogue to have their messages heard and, therefore, having the potential to be used as an instrument of persuasion in the search for votes.

(end of this week’s report preview)

This is a  complimentary introduction to one of the Brazilian Election reports that AJA Solutions issues weekly. Through big data and graph analytics, we have been accompanying the visibility and relevance rates of 14 pre-candidates on social networks, which allows us to identify which ideas are resonating most among voters and to indicate forward trends.

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AJA’s Brazilian Election reports deliver insights about political and communicational strategies based on social network data analysis, mapping, infographics and experience in covering politics and economy in Brazil.

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The weekly issues of AJA’s Brazilian Election report consist of 15 to 20 pages of political and social network analysis of fourteen pre-candidates. See how alliances are being built, the reactions of the public and how politicians manage their visibility and reputation online. Our reports offer:

  • Over 2M user interactions analysed monthly
  • Interactive maps: have a closer look at individual exchanges among users, find out who is saying what and what they are sharing, most shared images and links.
  • Custom infographics: track each candidates’ communicational efficiency, visibility growth rate and relevance.
  • Find out who the real influencers are.

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