Lula is back on the lead on Twitter

He is followed by Bolsonaro, whose relevance is static for the 3rd week

Week 14, from 8 to 15 June

By Maria Luiza Abbott and Marcelo Stoppa, AJA Media Solutions

On Twitter, as is the case in opinion polls, former president Lula and far-right congressman Jair Bolsonaro seized the lion’s share in the engagement of users that joined the election debate in the week from 8th to 15th June. For the second time since he was arrested just over two months ago, Lula led the ranking of relevance and visibility of presidential pre-candidates on Twitter. Two of his tweets, one on Brazil’s Valentine’s Day (12 June) and the other about a rosary blessed by pope Francis, generated high engagement and helped increase to 35% the former president’s share on the total relevance of pre-candidates on Twitter.

Congressman Bolsonaro kept his 2nd place on the ranking for the third week, as revealed by the weekly analysis conducted AJA Solutions. His share on the total relevance of pre-candidates has been static around 20% since week 25th May to 1st June.

One tweet, posted by the profile @lulapelobrasil, gained the highest score on visibility in the elections ecosystem. The tweet in question was posted on Brazil’s Valentine’s Day, saying: “When you feel that urge to go back to your ex”. The sentence was written on a photo of Lula with his hands forming the shape of a heart. It had over 13k original likes and was retweeted and commented on in an exponential rate.

A tweet about a rosary blessed by the pope and given to the former president by an Argentinian lawyer came 2nd in engagement. It became a battleground for Lula’s supporters and opponents, following the initial post by @lulapelobrasil that wrongly said the rosary had been sent by the pope. The controversy contributed to propel the former president’s visibility on Twitter.
The first time Lula lead the ranking after his imprisonment was in the week 19th-26th April. Then, his profile was propelled by the winner of Big Brother Brazil, who shouted “free Lula” live on TV when proclaimed the winner.
Bolsonaro had his relevance enhanced mainly by two tweets as well. He tweeted to Donald Trump both in English and Portuguese, congratulating him on “this great achievement in favour of freedom and world peace”, on the day the American president met North Korea leader Kim Jong-Un. Followed by 53 million users, @RealDonaldTrump did not reply, but the tweet resonated among Bolsonaro’s supporters and had more that 15k original likes.

The tweet with the second largest engagement among the congressman’s followers was his outrage against the results of an opinion poll conducted by DataFolha institute, that indicated Lula leads the race. According to the poll, in case Lula is not allowed to run, centrist Marina Silva (Rede) would win in the second ballot. “Datafolha, you should be ashamed and, of course, you must be getting something very good from your sponsors”, Bolsonaro said on video, insisting he would win the election.

(end of this week’s report preview)

This is a  complimentary introduction to one of the Brazilian Election reports that AJA Solutions issues weekly. Through big data and graph analytics, we have been accompanying the visibility and relevance rates of 14 pre-candidates on social networks, which allows us to identify which ideas are resonating most among voters and to indicate forward trends.

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AJA’s Brazilian Election reports deliver insights about political and communicational strategies based on social network data analysis, mapping, infographics and experience in covering politics and economy in Brazil.

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The weekly issues of AJA’s Brazilian Election report consist of 15 to 20 pages of political and social network analysis of fourteen pre-candidates. See how alliances are being built, the reactions of the public and how politicians manage their visibility and reputation online. Our reports offer:

  • Over 2M user interactions analysed monthly
  • Interactive maps: have a closer look at individual exchanges among users, find out who is saying what and what they are sharing, most shared images and links.
  • Custom infographics: track each candidates’ communicational efficiency, visibility growth rate and relevance.
  • Find out who the real influencers are.

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