Moderation seeking users put Manuela on top

On Facebook, Manuela, Boulos and Amoêdo emerge with strategies that deliver their messages beyond their followers

By Maria Luiza Abbott and Marcelo Stoppa, AJA Media Solutions

Moderation was awarded in the election ecosystem on Twitter in a week dominated by chaos, when the truckers strike revealed the government’s weaknesses and lead to appealsfor the return of the military rule. The weekly analysis conducted by AJA Solutions showed that Manuela D´Ávila, pre-candidate from Brazil’s Communist Party, came on top of therelevance and visibility ranking on Twitter. She gained ten percentage points with a moderate speech sprinkled with humor, which has characterised her message on Twitter so far.

The need of moderation was also grasped by far-right pre-candidate Jair Bolsonaro , who mostly encouraged the strike since it started on 21st May. By the 29th, Bolsonaroretreated saying that the movement had gone too far in a radio interview, adding that he had never called for military intervention. These remarks disappointed his combative followers, costing him a loss of 17 percentage points.For the first time since AJA started the analysis three months ago, Bolsonaro’s image as a politician who says whathe thinks and not what yields him dividends, has taken a bruising among his own followers. Bolsonaro’s fall in the ranking this week confirms the trend identified by AJA’s metrics and qualitative analysis in previous reports. His aggressive rhetoric gives him visibility among his followers, but falls short of efficiency in resonating his message outside his orbit. Whenever he tries to temperhis discourse to attract users outside his orbit, he faces resistance from his own followers in circulating his message – and consequently his share in the total relevance of pre-candidates falls.

Without a single tweet about the truckers strike, former president Lula kept the 3rd place in the ranking for the third week. His share in the total relevance of the pre-candidateswas sustained mostly by the results of an opinion poll by Vox Populi showing that he wouldwin the election in the first ballot.

In 4th place came leftist Guilherme Boulos, from PSOL (Socialism and Liberty Party),whose share in the total relevance was stable, as he criticised the government, Petrobras price policy and supported the oil workers strike.Once again, president Michel Temer came 5th as his visibility was directly connected to criticisms against how the government has performed in dealing with the truckers strike,including memes that were mocking him.

All of the centre-right candidates – including senator Alvaro Dias, from Parana, former governor of Sao Paulo Geraldo Alckmin and former Finance minister Henrique Meirelles – have performed poorly and their share of visibility and relevance is below the awareness threshold.

This week, AJA has also included metric and qualitative analysis of the main pre-candidates on Facebook in May.Last month, Boulos’ communication strategy yield the best proportional results in engaging users: with a relatively small number of followers, he managed to have his message reaching a proportionally high number of Facebook users.In 2nd place in this ranking of efficiency on Facebook came Manuela’s strategy,followed by that of centre-right João Amoêdo (New Party). This month’s result may encourage Amoêdo, but Twitter metrics – that indicate trends – reveal that his share in the total relevance of pre-candidates has been stationery for two weeks and has fallen slightly this week.The relevance of the pre-candidates on social network has direct influence on crowdfunding, which has been allowed by law as a form of funding a campaign for the first time.

AJA study this week comprised of analyses of 552,216 interactions among 266,117Twitter users. The interactive version of the relevance and visibility map (available forsubscribers), reveals hits and missteps along with a guidance to right approach to gain relevance.

(end of this week’s report preview)

This is a  complimentary introduction to one of the Brazilian Election reports that AJA Solutions issues weekly. Through big data and graph analytics, we have been accompanying the visibility and relevance rates of 14 pre-candidates on social networks, which allows us to identify which ideas are resonating most among voters and to indicate forward trends.

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AJA’s Brazilian Election reports deliver insights about political and communicational strategies based on social network data analysis, mapping, infographics and experience in covering politics and economy in Brazil.

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The weekly issues of AJA’s Brazilian Election report consist of 15 to 20 pages of political and social network analysis of fourteen pre-candidates. See how alliances are being built, the reactions of the public and how politicians manage their visibility and reputation online. Our reports offer:

  • Over 2M user interactions analysed monthly
  • Interactive maps: have a closer look at individual exchanges among users, find out who is saying what and what they are sharing, most shared images and links.
  • Custom infographics: track each candidates’ communicational efficiency, visibility growth rate and relevance.
  • Find out who the real influencers are.

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